The total grain harvest could rise to as much as 4.4 billion kilos if the threshing weather remains favourable. The harvest would then be about 160 million kilos more than in autumn 2008. This is the forecast issued by Tike, the Information Centre of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, in its second and last advance harvest estimate. The final harvest statistics will be completed in January 2010, but Tike will publish an advance notification on the figures in November 2009.

During the 2009 growing season, average heat and moisture have been suitable for crop development. Heat and moisture have been particularly favourable in Northern Ostrobothnia and Kainuu. That said, the regional differences are slight. The grain harvest is expected to be good in terms of both quantity and quality. However, threshing has only just begun, and the situation could still change. The revised advance harvest estimate increases the expected grain harvest to 4.4 billion kilos. In the forecast published at the end of July, the harvest was estimated to amount to 4.3 billion kilos.

Record crop of spring wheat is expected
The bread grain harvest is forecast to see a year-on-year increase of about 85 million kilos. This is due to the growth in the area under spring wheat and a rise of about 500 kilos in per-hectare yields. The threshed harvest of winter wheat is almost a third smaller than last year.

Although it is anticipated that the per-hectare yield of rye will be higher than last year, this is not enough to offset the fall in the expected harvest due to the decline in the area sown to rye. Consequently the rye harvest will probably fall about one quarter short of the previous year. The total bread grain harvest will be close to breaking the milestone of one billion kilos.

Feed grain harvest amounts to 3.4 billion kilos
The per-hectare yield of barley will remain at the previous year’s level, but the total harvest will most likely grow by about 50 million kilos due to the rise in the area under barley. The area under mixed grain has almost doubled compared to the previous year, increasing the expected harvest by about 27 million kilos. According to the forecast, the oat harvest will decline by a couple of million kilos. The harvest threshed from feed grain is expected to rise to about 3.4 billion kilos.

Turnip rape harvest up 50 per cent
The per-hectare yield of turnip rape is forecast to see an improvement of about 150 kilos compared to last summer. The concurrent growth in the area under turnip rape will lead to an increase of 50 per cent. The total harvest will probably rise to over 100 million kilos. This autumn, the per-hectare yield of rape is expected to be even higher than that of turnip rape. The rape harvest will most likely increase by almost a fifth, even though the area under rape has declined slightly since last autumn.

Sugar beet harvest slump ends
The decline in the area under sugar beet has come to an end, and a harvest of close to 570 million kilos is expected this autumn. Both the per-hectare yield and area under peas are growing briskly. The dry hay and silage harvests will also be slightly better than last year, solely due to the improvement in yields per hectare.

The harvest estimates are based on estimates from their own areas supplied by experts at local ProAgria Rural Advisory Centres, reflecting the situation as on 25 August. The estimates for each municipality are based on visual observations and knowledge of local conditions. The cultivated areas for the different crops are based on information supplied by farmers on their subsidy applications, of which almost all had been entered by 25 August 2009.

For additional information, contact
Actuary Irene Mustalahti, tel. +358 20 77 21340
Researcher Mirva Kokkinen, tel. +358 20 77 21371
E-mail addresses are in the format forename.surname@mmmtike.