According to the second preliminary crop estimate from Tike, the grain crops will shrink to 2.9 billion kilograms. In mid-July, the crop estimate was slightly higher, approximately 3.1 billion kilograms. The reduced area of land used for grain and the low harvest yield decrease the grain crops by a third from 2009, and the grain harvest will be the smallest in a decade. This crop estimate is based on estimates created by the experts at ProAgria Centres, and it will be specified on 23 November when crop information from farmers will be available.

Drought shrinks crops
Threshing has proceeded exceptionally swiftly on Finnish fields. Threshing has started earlier than normally, mainly due to draught that has both caused the forced ripening of grain and decreased the seed size and crops. At the moment, some grain still remains unthreshed and a major part of the turnip rape, potato and sugar beet harvest has not yet been collected.

The smallest grain crops in a decade
The grain crops will be the smallest in a decade, possibly even slightly smaller than the 1999 harvest. In the past decades, there have been a couple of years when the harvest has been as small as it will be this autumn. The most recent years when 3 billion kilograms was not reached were 1999 (2.9 billion kilograms) and 1998 (2.8 billion kilograms). Before that, crops amounted to under 3 billion kilograms in 1992, 1987 and 1988.

The barley crop will decrease by 900 million kilograms
All in all, the grain crops will decrease by a third from 2009, i.e. by approximately 1,400 million kilograms. The main grain to be harvested is barley, amounting to about 1.3 billion kilograms. The crop decrease will also affect barley the most, by approximately 900 million kilograms. The oat crop will be about 800 million kilograms. The decrease in the oat crop in comparison to last year will be a fourth, approximately 300 million kilograms.

Winter grain crops will double
In Finland, the share of winter grains per land used for grain is small compared to many other countries. This year, the share of winter wheat and winter rye in the land used for grain grew from last year’s 2% to 4%. The doubled area will yield approximately doubled crops in comparison to last year. The winter wheat crop will be approximately 83 million kilograms. The rye crop will be about 69 million kilograms, of which spring rye accounts for approximately 20%.

Turnip rape crop at a record-breaking level
As the area sown to grains has decreased, the area in set-aside has increased and turnip rape, oilseed rape and broad bean have gained cultivation area. This summer, the area sown to turnip rape doubled from 2009 up to 142,000 hectares. The turnip rape crop is expected to be at a record-breaking level of nearly 180 million kilograms, 50% up from the previous year. The area sown to oilseed rape increased as well, to over 16,000 hectares and 23 million kilograms.

Background
The Tike crop estimates are based on estimates illustrating the situation of August 25th, created by the local experts of ProAgria Centres in their own areas. The municipality-specific estimates are based on visual observations and local expertise. The data on the areas under crop varieties have been obtained from support application forms submitted by farmers. The date is from the support register on 25 August 2010 when the data from the majority of areas had been recorded. The next preliminary crop estimate, based on crop information submitted by farmers, will be published on 23 November this year.

A table related to the statistics will be published in Matilda, the agricultural statistics service, on the home page of the Preliminary Crop Production Statistics.

Additional information
Anneli Partala, Researcher, Tel. +358 20 77 21376
Liisa Siitonen, Researcher, Tel. +358 20 77 21390
E-mail addresses are in the format forename.surname@mmmtike.fi